Figure 1: HBAR's Precarious Technical Setup The daily chart illustrates the descending triangle formation, with the price testing the crucial $0.12 support. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator in the lower panel shows a sharp decline into negative territory, signaling capital outflow from large holders. The converging trendlines indicate a decisive breakout or breakdown is imminent .
📉 HBAR/USDT Daily Chart | Source: Conceptual visualization based on analysis
The Contradiction in HBAR's Setup: Whale Exit vs. Momentum Hope
Context: HBAR's price action is caught between a deeply negative capital flow indicator and a single, potentially reversing, momentum signal.
Part 1: The Bearish Backdrop – Whale Exit and Weak Structure
HBAR's price action has deteriorated significantly, with the token declining nearly 2% over 24 hours and approximately 10% over the past week . This decline has breached several short-term support levels, leaving the price to hover precariously around the $0.12 mark. This level is not merely psychological; it represents the horizontal support line of a descending triangle pattern—a formation that often precedes a bearish resolution .
The Core Problem: Capital Flight. The most significant source of selling pressure stems from the behavior of large HBAR holders. This is quantified by the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator, which measures whether significant capital is entering or exiting an asset by combining price movement with volume .
For HBAR, the CMF picture is alarmingly weak. The indicator has deteriorated sharply, dropping by more than 400% since December 7 and moving deep into negative territory with a reading near -0.32 . This negative reading signals a period of distribution, where large holders are net sellers. Critically, earlier price pullbacks saw CMF remain positive, indicating buyers were absorbing selling pressure. That supportive dynamic is now absent .
Understanding the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) Indicator
CMF > 0: Indicates that large money (whales/institutions) is a net buyer. Buying pressure is dominant, often supporting price rallies or stability.
CMF < 0: Signals that large money is a net seller. Selling pressure from major holders is dominating, which typically undermines price structure.
The indicator's sharp drop and sustained negative reading for HBAR suggest a lack of conviction from the players who typically provide market stability .
Further compounding the issue is a clear bearish divergence observed in the CMF. Between October 10 and December 14, the HBAR price formed higher lows, while the CMF formed lower lows . This disconnect reveals that the price's attempt to stabilize or form a base was not supported by underlying demand from large investors. In essence, price was trying to hold up while "big money quietly exited" . This imbalance makes the current support at $0.12 highly vulnerable.
Part 2: The Lone Bullish Hope – An RSI Divergence
Against this bearish backdrop of whale exit and pattern breakdown, one technical indicator offers a contrasting, potentially hopeful signal. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator, has formed a bullish divergence on HBAR's daily chart .
This divergence occurred between November 21 and December 14. During this period, the HBAR price made a lower low, continuing its downtrend. However, the RSI made a higher low . This is a classic technical signal that suggests the momentum behind the price decline is waning, even as the price itself continues to fall. It often appears as a precursor to a potential trend reversal or at least a significant pause in the downtrend.
"This tells us sellers are still pushing prices lower, but with less force each time. The decline continues, but the seller-driven momentum behind it is weakening. At the moment, this RSI divergence is the only bullish play HBAR has left."
The significance of this signal cannot be overstated in the current context. With the CMF showing capital flight and the price testing a major pattern support, this RSI divergence represents the primary technical argument against an immediate and severe breakdown. It indicates that selling pressure may be becoming exhausted, which could allow buyers to step in if other market conditions improve .
Part 3: Decisive Price Levels – The Path to $0.10 or $0.13
The conflicting signals from indicators create a binary outcome scenario dictated by a few critical price levels. The immediate battle is centered on the $0.12 support, which forms the base of the descending triangle pattern .
| Price Level | Significance | Implication if Broken/Held |
|---|---|---|
| $0.12 (Support) | Base of descending triangle; last line of defense for bullish structure. | Breakdown: Triggers pattern target toward $0.10 (12-13% drop). Hold: Keeps rebound possibility alive . |
| $0.10 (Target) | Projected target from a $0.12 breakdown; major psychological level. | Reached if $0.12 fails; would confirm bearish trend continuation and likely induce further selling . |
| $0.13 (Resistance) | Key Fibonacci retracement zone; coincides with descending trendline. | Reclaim: First sign of buyer return; would break price above bearish trendline and shift structure to neutral . |
| $0.155 (Recovery) | Prior support turned resistance; upper bound of recent range. | Sustained move above this level is required to invalidate the bearish outlook and signal a potential trend reversal . |
The analysis suggests that for the bullish RSI divergence to manifest in a price recovery, HBAR must first defend $0.12 and then muster the strength to reclaim $0.13 on a daily closing basis. A failure to hold $0.12 would likely render the RSI divergence ineffective, as the market would be overwhelmed by bearish momentum and the fulfillment of the triangle pattern's measured move .
Part 4: Scenario Analysis – Breakdown vs. Reversal
The technical setup presents two starkly different potential paths, each with defined triggers and targets.
Bearish Scenario: Breakdown to $0.10
-
Trigger: A decisive daily close below the $0.12 support level.
-
Confirmation: The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) remains deeply negative, validating the lack of large buyer interest.
-
Price Target: The descending triangle pattern projects a move to approximately $0.10, representing a 12-13% decline from the $0.12 breakdown point .
-
Outcome: The bearish trend extends, and the bullish RSI divergence fails. The next significant support would then be tested.
Bullish Scenario: Defense and Recovery
-
Trigger: Successful defense of the $0.12 support, followed by a rally above $0.13.
-
Confirmation: The bullish RSI divergence leads to increased buying momentum, and the CMF begins to improve from its lows.
-
Price Target: Initial recovery toward $0.140 - $0.155. A break above $0.155 would open the path for a more sustained rally .
-
Outcome: The descending triangle pattern fails to break down. The trend structure shifts from bearish to neutral, allowing for consolidation or a reversal attempt.
The bearish scenario appears to have stronger supporting evidence from volume-based indicators (CMF) and the completed head-and-shoulders pattern cited in other analyses . The bullish scenario hinges almost entirely on the strength of the RSI divergence and its ability to catalyze buying at a precise technical level.
FAQ: Understanding HBAR's Critical Technical Setup
Q: What is the main risk for HBAR's price according to the analysis?
A: The primary risk is a breakdown below the critical $0.12 support level. This breakdown, which is the lower boundary of a descending triangle pattern, could trigger a sharp 12% to 13% decline toward the $0.10 price area, extending the established bearish trend .
Q: What bullish signal is still supporting HBAR's price structure?
A: A bullish divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is providing support. While the price made a lower low between November 21 and December 14, the RSI made a higher low. This classic divergence suggests that while price is falling, the underlying selling momentum is weakening, which can precede a trend reversal .
Q: What does the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator reveal about large investors?
A: The CMF indicator, which tracks money flow from large investors, has deteriorated sharply. It has dropped deep into negative territory (around -0.32), signaling that significant capital is exiting HBAR. A bearish divergence—where price made higher highs while CMF made lower highs—confirms that recent price stability lacked support from large buyers .
Q: What price level does HBAR need to reclaim to stabilize and shift the narrative?
A: To stabilize and signal a potential shift in market structure, HBAR needs to reclaim the $0.13 level on a daily closing basis. This level aligns with a key Fibonacci retracement zone and would break the price above the descending trendline that has capped rallies, moving the structure from bearish to neutral .
About the Author: Alexandra Vance
Sources & References
- Primary Technical Analysis Source: BeInCrypto – "HBAR Has One Bullish Play Left — Is It Enough to Avoid a 13% Breakdown?" (December 14, 2025) .
- BeInCrypto – "HBAR Price Hits Breakdown Target — Bounce Now or Another 16% Drop?" (December 17, 2025) .
- Pintu News – Republished analysis from BeInCrypto detailing HBAR's critical levels and indicator divergences .
- Yahoo Finance – "HBAR Price Rebound Finds Big Money Support, But One Hurdle to a Rally Still Remains" for context on higher-timeframe resistance .
Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The analysis is based on technical indicators and historical price patterns, which are not reliable predictors of future performance. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and risky. You should conduct your own independent research (DYOR) and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The author and publisher are not responsible for any financial losses that may result from acting on information contained in this analysis.