Hedera's native token HBAR faces renewed market pressure, declining approximately 17% over the past week and extending losses to nearly 24% on a monthly basis. This persistent downtrend gains technical significance as price approaches a critical juncture defined by a previously established chart pattern projection.
The latest decline carries heightened importance as HBAR has reached its projected technical target. Market attention now focuses on whether this level will provide meaningful support or yield to further selling pressure.
HBAR Technical Breakdown Analysis. Source: TradingView
Chart illustrating HBAR's head-and-shoulders pattern completion and approach to critical $0.113 support
📊 HBAR Critical Technical Levels
Data Sources: TradingView, Coinglass, Exchange Flow Metrics
Head-and-Shoulders Pattern Reaches Projection Target
Technical analysis reveals HBAR confirmed a head-and-shoulders breakdown pattern on November 13, establishing a clear directional bias. This classic reversal formation projected a decline of approximately 28% from its neckline resistance.
The projected target materialized on December 15 when HBAR reached the $0.113 price zone. Since achieving this technical objective, price action has entered a consolidation phase, with the breakdown level transitioning into immediate-term support.
This technical milestone represents a critical inflection point where selling momentum typically decelerates as the pattern completes its measured move. The market now faces a decisive question: will this level initiate consolidation and potential recovery, or serve as temporary support before further declines?
Pattern Completion Analysis. Source: TradingView
Head-and-shoulders breakdown reaches projected $0.113 target, establishing critical technical inflection point
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Capital Flow Metrics Signal Persistent Weakness
Despite reaching technical support, underlying market metrics fail to exhibit characteristics typically associated with sustainable recovery formation.
The Chaikin Money Flow indicator, which measures capital movement by incorporating volume and price data, has declined to approximately -0.32. This reading represents the most negative CMF value observed in nearly twelve months, indicating substantial capital outflow from HBAR markets.
CMF readings below zero generally reflect net selling pressure, with more negative values suggesting more pronounced distribution. The current level suggests institutional or large-scale participants continue reducing exposure despite price approaching technically significant levels.
Capital Flow Analysis Shows Weakness. Source: TradingView
CMF indicator reaches yearly low near -0.32, signaling persistent capital outflow despite technical support approach
Exchange flow data provides additional context for current market conditions. On December 14, HBAR recorded net exchange outflows totaling approximately $3.16 million, suggesting some accumulation or reduced immediate selling intent. However, this dynamic proved temporary.
Recent data indicates flow direction has reversed, with marginal net inflows of around $0.30 million observed over the past 48-72 hours. While the magnitude appears modest, the directional shift suggests earlier accumulation pressure has dissipated, with tokens returning to exchange environments typically associated with selling availability.
Exchange Flow Dynamics Shift. Source: Coinglass
Initial outflow support fades as tokens return to exchanges, suggesting renewed selling availability
Collectively, these metrics paint a picture of tentative market conditions. While technical patterns have reached completion, underlying capital and flow dynamics lack the conviction typically associated with sustainable reversal formations.
Defining Price Levels for Directional Resolution
With pattern completion achieved and weak demand metrics established, attention shifts to critical price thresholds that will determine HBAR's near-term trajectory.
The immediate battleground resides at the $0.113 support zone. Sustained trading beneath this level would confirm the breakdown's continuation, exposing subsequent support near $0.107. A decisive break below this secondary level would establish vulnerability toward the $0.095 region, representing approximately 16% additional downside from current positioning.
Rebound Scenario
Requirement: Holding above $0.113 support
Initial Resistance: $0.130 - $0.140 zone
Confirmation Level: Daily close above $0.155
Implication: Pattern completion leads to consolidation/recovery
Breakdown Scenario
Trigger: Sustained break below $0.113
Next Support: $0.107 secondary level
Primary Target: $0.095 projected objective
Implication: Continuation of established downtrend
For any recovery attempt to transition from technical bounce to meaningful trend reversal, HBAR must achieve a daily closing price above $0.155. This level aligns with prior support-turned-resistance and represents the underside of the former trading range. Until this threshold is reclaimed, potential rebounds remain suspect within the context of the broader downtrend.
Current technical positioning suggests HBAR has fulfilled its immediate pattern projection. The critical question evolves from pattern completion to demand assessment: can weakened market participation sustain current levels, or will indifferent capital flow precipitate the next decline phase?
Critical Threshold Analysis. Source: TradingView
Defined price levels establish framework for determining HBAR's next significant directional move
Present evidence favors continued caution. While technical patterns have completed their measured moves, supporting metrics lack conviction. Market participants should monitor the $0.113 level closely, with breaks lower suggesting extension toward $0.095, while sustained holds may facilitate consolidation within the current range.
About the Author: Alexandra Vance
Alexandra Vance is a technical market analyst specializing in cryptocurrency derivatives and price action analysis. With extensive experience in financial markets, she focuses on integrating derivative positioning, on-chain metrics, and classical technical analysis to provide comprehensive market perspectives.
Disclaimer: This analysis represents educational and informational content only and should not be interpreted as financial advice, investment recommendations, or trading guidance. All market participants should conduct independent research and consult qualified professionals before making financial decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Cryptocurrency investments involve substantial risk and volatility.
Analytical Sources & Data References
- Technical charts, pattern analysis, and momentum indicators from TradingView
- Exchange flow data and capital metrics sourced from Coinglass
- Market performance data and historical context from CoinMarketCap