Zcash Price & Technical Indicators: The chart illustrates ZEC's consolidation and the formation of a bearish EMA crossover. The lower pane shows the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator, which has been rising despite the price correction, suggesting a divergence between price action and capital flow.
📊 Technical Analysis Visualization | 🔗 Source: Chart recreated by CoinTrendsCrypto based on publicly available data
📊 Zcash Market Snapshot: The Technical Standoff
Context: ZEC trades in a consolidation range. A bearish EMA crossover and weak OBV contrast with a rising CMF, indicating potential accumulation despite price weakness.
Part 1: Arthur Hayes's Endorsement – A Focus on Technology, Not Price
The recent commentary from Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, brought renewed attention to Zcash's fundamental value proposition. In an interview, Hayes explained that his view on privacy coins has evolved.
The Context of Hayes's Comments: Hayes stated, “That’s one of the reasons why I moved from the Monero camp into the Zcash camp when we talk about privacy coins.” He highlighted Zcash's progress in shielded transactions and cryptographic improvements. Crucially, his discussion centered exclusively on the technology and design of the network. He did not comment on price targets or suggest any market timing for investment.
This distinction is vital for understanding the market's muted reaction. Endorsements based on technological merit can build long-term confidence but often lack the immediate, catalytic power of explicit trading calls or investment announcements. The price action following his comments underscores that traders are currently more influenced by on-chain metrics and chart patterns than by fundamental praise.
Part 2: The Bearish Technical Structure Keeping Price in Check
Despite the positive sentiment from a high-profile industry figure, Zcash's chart reveals several headwinds that are preventing a bullish breakout.
The Bearish EMA Crossover
A significant technical warning is forming on the daily chart. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is very close to crossing below the 50-day EMA. This event, known as a bearish crossover, typically signals that short-term selling pressure is overcoming medium-term buying interest. Such a crossover often precedes or confirms a downtrend, keeping traders in a cautious, defensive stance until the structure improves.
Weak On-Balance Volume (OBV)
Compounding the issue is the behavior of the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator. Between December 12 and December 18, as the Zcash price trended lower, the OBV also weakened. OBV measures buying and selling pressure by adding volume on up days and subtracting it on down days. A declining OBV during a price drop confirms that the downtrend is supported by high selling volume, indicating a lack of buyer conviction. For any sustainable rally to begin, a rising OBV is needed to show that buyers are actively stepping in.
Bearish Technical Setup. The chart highlights the convergence of the 20-day and 50-day EMAs, signaling potential bearish momentum. The lower pane shows the On-Balance Volume (OBV) trending downward, confirming a lack of strong buying interest during the recent price decline.
📈 Technical Indicator Analysis | 🔗 Source: Chart recreated by CoinTrendsCrypto
Part 3: A Glimmer of Hope – The Rising Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)
Amid the bearish price structure, one indicator offers a contrasting, potentially hopeful signal. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), a volume-based indicator that measures the flow of money into or out of an asset, has been rising between December 11 and December 18, even as the ZEC price corrected.
Interpreting the CMF Divergence: A rising CMF during a price decline can suggest that larger investors or "smart money" are accumulating the asset at lower prices. This creates a positive divergence, where capital flow strengthens before the price itself recovers. However, a critical caveat exists: the CMF remains below the zero line. A move above zero is often the confirmation needed to signal that real, sustained buying is taking place.
This pattern suggests that while the short-term trend is weak, underlying interest may be building. If this capital inflow continues and the CMF can break above zero, it could provide the foundation for a future price recovery.
Part 4: Critical Price Levels and Forward Scenarios
The battle between the bearish technical structure and the nascent accumulation signal sets up a clear framework defined by specific price levels.
| Price Level | Role | Implication for Market Direction |
|---|---|---|
| $434 | Primary Resistance | A clean daily close above $434 is the first prerequisite for buyers to regain control. This would indicate a break above the immediate selling pressure and open the path toward higher targets. |
| $516 | Next Bullish Target | If $434 is convincingly breached, the next significant resistance zone sits near $516. A move to this level would signal a strong recovery is underway. |
| $371 | Primary Support | This is the first major line of defense for bulls. A break below $371 would likely trigger further selling, negating the positive CMF divergence and shifting momentum firmly to the bears. |
| $301 | Secondary Support | In a bearish scenario where $371 fails, the price could fall toward $301, a level where previous buying interest has been observed. |
Bearish Scenario: Breakdown and Test of Lower Support
Trigger: The bearish EMA crossover completes, and selling pressure increases, pushing the price below the key $371 support level.
- The positive CMF divergence fails, and the indicator turns down.
- On-Balance Volume (OBV) continues to weaken, confirming the downtrend.
- Price targets the next major support zone around $301.
This path would validate the current technical warnings and likely lead to an extended period of consolidation or further decline.
Bullish Scenario: Breakout Fueled by Capital Inflows
Trigger: The CMF breaks above the zero line, confirming accumulation, and buying volume returns to propel a daily close above $434 resistance.
- The EMA crossover is avoided or reverses as buying pressure mounts.
- OBV begins to rise, reflecting genuine buyer participation.
- The rally extends toward the $516 resistance zone.
This scenario would demonstrate that the underlying accumulation suggested by the CMF was a leading indicator for a price recovery.
FAQ: Understanding Zcash's Current Market Dynamics
Q: Did Arthur Hayes tell people to buy Zcash?
A: No. It is important to distinguish between a technological endorsement and a market call. Arthur Hayes praised Zcash's privacy design and explained why he prefers it over other options like Monero. However, he did not discuss price targets, suggest buying ZEC, or provide any timing for investment. His comments were focused on the long-term fundamentals of the technology, not short-term trading.
Q: What is the single most important level to watch for Zcash right now?
A: The $434 resistance level is critically important for the bullish case. A daily close above this level is needed to signal that buyers have overcome the immediate selling pressure and could open the door to a move toward $516. Conversely, the $371 support level is the most important for the bearish case; a break below it would likely trigger further downside.
Q: Can the rising CMF indicator alone signal a buy?
A: Not by itself. While a rising Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) during a price decline is a constructive sign of potential accumulation, it requires confirmation. Traders typically wait for the CMF to cross above the zero line to confirm that buying pressure is dominant. Furthermore, this signal should be aligned with a bullish price action, such as a break above key resistance, to form a complete and lower-risk thesis.
About the Author: Isabella Rossi
Isabella Rossi specializes in cryptocurrency market structure, institutional investment trends, and decentralized governance models. With a focus on the intersection of blockchain technology, law, and finance, she provides analysis on emerging frameworks that are shaping the future of digital organizations and asset ownership.
Sources & References
- BeInCrypto. (2025, December 19). Zcash Price Stalls Despite Arthur Hayes Support.
- Real-time market data and technical indicator analysis for Zcash (ZEC).
Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and involve substantial risk. The analysis presented is based on technical indicators and market data available at the time of writing; market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own thorough research (DYOR), consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.