The Wedge Compression: HBAR's 15% decline places the asset within a descending broadening wedge structure that historically resolves with 43% upside moves upon validated breakout, provided Bitcoin's correlation drag dissipates.
🔍 Altcoin Analysis | 🔗 Source: TradingView, BeInCrypto Research
📊 HBAR Critical Levels (February 1, 2026)
Verified price action and technical indicator data.
The Correlation Trap: When Bitcoin's Pain Becomes HBAR's Shadow
Hedera's native token HBAR plunged 15% on February 1, 2026, touching $0.091—levels not seen since April 2025—as Bitcoin's violent break below $80,000 triggered systemic deleveraging. However, unlike fundamental-driven selloffs, this decline stemmed primarily from mechanical correlation rather than Hedera-specific deterioration. TradingView data confirms HBAR maintains a 0.87-0.98 correlation coefficient with Bitcoin, effectively shackling the altcoin to every twitch in the alpha asset's price action.
This gravitational dependence creates exaggerated volatility during macro shocks. When Bitcoin breached the critical $80,500 True Market Mean support, HBAR mimicked the trajectory with amplified severity—declining from $0.107 to $0.091 in hours despite absence of network-specific negatives. The phenomenon illustrates how high-correlation altcoins function as levered proxies for Bitcoin exposure during stress events, punishing holders with beta-indexed drawdowns even when underlying fundamentals remain intact.
HBAR's 0.87+ correlation with Bitcoin transforms the asset into a high-beta synthetic derivative of BTC during market stress, creating forced selling cascades that disconnect from Hedera's enterprise adoption milestones.
Capital Flows Beneath the Surface: The CMF Divergence
Beneath the panic-driven price action, on-chain mechanics reveal a counterintuitive narrative. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator—a volume-weighted measure of accumulation and distribution—has formed a notable bullish divergence over the past 96 hours. While HBAR printed lower lows at $0.091, CMF established higher lows, signaling that institutional capital is entering positions even as retail capitulates.
The Divergence Mechanics
Price Action: Lower lows at $0.107→$0.097→$0.091 create technical breakdown appearance triggering stop-loss cascades.
Volume Profile: CMF rises from negative territory toward the 0.0 threshold, indicating smart money accumulation absorbing panic selling.
Sentiment Gap: Retail investors dump into institutional bids, creating the divergence where price falls while capital inflows increase—a classic reversal setup preceding accumulation phases.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) corroborates this exhaustion thesis, dipping below the 30.0 threshold into oversold territory for the first time since December 2025. Historically, HBAR's RSI readings below 30 have preceded 15-25% bounces within 7-14 trading days, provided the broader market stabilizes. The confluence of oversold RSI and positive CMF divergence creates a statistical edge for mean reversion, though timing depends on Bitcoin finding a floor above $77,000.
The Expanding Wedge: Compression Before Expansion
Price structure reveals HBAR trading within a descending broadening wedge pattern initiated after January's failed breakout attempt. This formation—characterized by diverging trendlines containing lower highs and lower lows—typically resolves with explosive directional moves upon third or fourth support touch. HBAR now tests the lower boundary near $0.091, placing the asset at a strategic inflection point.
Measured move calculations project a 43% upside target toward $0.146 upon confirmed breakout above $0.114, with immediate resistance clusters at $0.103 and $0.114 acting as validation checkpoints. The pattern's reliability depends on maintaining support above $0.084; a breakdown below this threshold invalidates the wedge structure and exposes the psychological $0.080 level where liquidation cascades may accelerate.
The Correlation Paradox
Validation Risk: Breakout requires reclaiming $0.103, but Bitcoin's correlation means HBAR cannot independently rally while BTC trades below $80,000.
Timing Asymmetry: CMF divergence suggests accumulation starting now, yet wedge resolution may take 10-20 days—exposing positions to further macro shocks.
Liquidity Constraints: HBAR's 24-hour volume dropped to $85M during the crash, narrowing bid-ask spreads and amplifying slippage for larger positions.
Validation Pathways: If Technical Independence Emerges
Condition: Correlation Decoupling
If HBAR's correlation to Bitcoin drops below 0.60—as observed temporarily in early December 2025—then the asset could reclaim $0.103 independently despite BTC consolidation. Under this scenario, the descending wedge breakout validates with volume expansion above $0.114, targeting the measured move at $0.146. The condition requires sustained institutional custody inflows into Hedera's ecosystem to offset Bitcoin's gravitational drag.
Condition: Bitcoin Floor Confirmation
If Bitcoin stabilizes above $78,000 and the Realized Cap flatline resolves through renewed ETF inflows, HBAR's high correlation transforms from liability to leverage. Under this macro environment, the 0.87 beta coefficient accelerates recovery, potentially pushing HBAR through $0.114 resistance within 48 hours of BTC reclaiming $82,000. The wedge pattern completion would confirm with a daily close above $0.103.
Breakdown Risks: If Structure Fails
Condition: Wedge Invalidation
If selling pressure breaches the $0.084 support level—breaking the descending broadening wedge's lower boundary—the technical setup collapses entirely. Under this condition, HBAR targets the $0.070-0.075 range where long-term holder cost basis clusters, invalidating the 43% upside thesis and triggering systematic strategy unwinds from algorithmic positions.
Condition: Macro Contagion Intensification
If Bitcoin extends losses below $75,000 amid Warsh Fed nomination fallout, HBAR's correlation mechanism forces mechanical selling regardless of CMF divergence. The 0.98 correlation coefficient observed during extreme stress could drive HBAR toward $0.080 despite accumulation signals, creating a liquidity trap where buyers face continued drawdowns until macro stabilization.
The Accumulation Cloak: Reading Between the Candles
The current HBAR structure presents a classic contrarian setup obscured by Bitcoin's noise. While retail investors react to the 15% decline with panic offloading, CMF divergence and RSI oversold conditions suggest sophisticated capital is building positions at discounted valuations. Historical precedence indicates that descending broadening wedges resolve upward 80% of the time when accompanied by positive volume divergences.
However, the correlation constraint means HBAR cannot decouple from Bitcoin's trajectory indefinitely. The asset functions as a leveraged proxy for BTC beta, making independent rallies impossible during sustained alpha-asset declines. Investors must therefore view the current setup not as immediate opportunity, but as strategic preparation—accumulating within the $0.091-0.098 range while acknowledging that realization of the $0.146 target depends entirely on Bitcoin finding support above the $77,000 liquidity floor. Until that macro confirmation arrives, HBAR remains cloaked in accumulation potential but exposed to gravitational collapse.
About the Author: Alexandra Vance
Alexandra Vance is a market analyst specializing in token velocity mechanics, on-chain analytics, and the intersection of social media sentiment with cryptocurrency price discovery.
Sources & References
- Yahoo Finance: HBAR-USD Historical Price Data (February 1, 2026)
- TradingView: HBAR-Bitcoin Correlation Analysis and Chart Patterns
- BeInCrypto: HBAR Price Analysis and Descending Broadening Wedge Technical Study
- AInvest: Critical HBAR Support and Resistance Levels (February 1, 2026)
- CryptoQuant: On-Chain Flow Metrics and CMF Divergence Data
- Glassnode: Realized Cap and Market Mean Analysis
- CoinMarketCap: HBAR Trading Volume and Market Capitalization Data
Risk Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The analysis is based on publicly available market data and technical indicators. Cryptocurrency markets involve substantial risk of loss including potential loss of principal. HBAR's high correlation with Bitcoin means it may suffer amplified losses during BTC declines. Technical patterns such as descending wedges have approximately 80% historical success rates but can fail. You should conduct your own thorough research and consult qualified financial advisors before making investment decisions. The author and publisher are not responsible for any losses or damages arising from the use of this information.
Update Your Sources
For ongoing tracking of HBAR price action and technical indicators:
- Yahoo Finance HBAR Chart – Real-time price data and correlation studies
- TradingView HBAR/USDT – Technical pattern recognition and wedge formation tracking
- Hedera Official – Network development updates and enterprise adoption news
- CryptoQuant HBAR – On-chain metrics and Chaikin Money Flow data
- CoinTrendsCrypto Hedera Archive – Previous technical analysis and support/resistance studies
Note: Correlation coefficients vary based on lookback periods; verify current HBAR-BTC correlation through TradingView's correlation indicator. Support and resistance levels are dynamic and may shift with volume profile changes.